On the asymmetric effects of exchange-rate volatility on trade flows: Evidence from US–UK Commodity Trade

We consider the response of each of the 67 industries that trade between the United States and United Kingdom to the volatility of the real dollar–pound exchange rate. When we follow previous research and estimate a linear ARDL model for each industry, we find short-run effects of volatility in 22 US exporting industries to the United Kingdom that last into the long run only in nine industries. As for the UK exports to the United States, we find short-run effects in 18 industries that last into the long run in 15 industries. However, when we estimate a nonlinear model for each industry, we find short-run effects of volatility on 41 US exporting industries and on 43 UK exporting industries, all in an asymmetric manner. Short-run asymmetric effects lasted into long-run asymmetric effects in 24 US exporting industries to the United Kingdom and in 33 UK exporting industries to the United States. While total trade shares of industries from the linear models were negligible, those of the industries from the nonlinear models were significant in size, in the tune of one-third of the trade.     

Asymmetry effects of exchange rate changes on domestic production in Japan

Previous studies that assessed the effects of currency depreciation on the domestic production of Japan did not find any significant long-run effects. Using the linear ARDL approach we first confirm previous findings. We then argue and show that failure to find any significant link between the value of the yen and Japanese domestic production is due to assuming a linear adjustment mechanism or symmetric effects of exchange rate changes. Once we use the nonlinear ARDL approach we show that indeed exchange rate changes do have asymmetric effects on domestic production in Japan. Not only we observe adjustment asymmetry, but also short-run asymmetry that lasts into the long run. In the long run while strong yen seems to hurt domestic production in Japan, weak yen seems to have no effect.     

Accidents airline safety perceptions and consumer demand

This paper assesses the impact of perceptions about the safety level of airlines on enplanement. Consumer perceptions are specified with a Poisson distribution that updates over time. Using two different empirical specifications via a pooled generalized least squares procedure with fixed effects; we find no statistical evidence of a correlation between the perceived level of safety and enplanement. However, under an alternative specification in which the severity levels of accidents are ranked, we find that safety perceptions about accidents with minor injuries have no statistically significant impact on enplanement, while perceptions about accidents with serious injuries and fatalities lead to cumulative decreases in enplanement.     

The J-Curve: Evidence from commodity trade between Canada and the U.S.

Several studies in the literature have tried to assess the impact of real depreciation of the Canadian dollar on the Canadian trade balance. They have either relied on the trade data between Canada and the rest of the world or between Canada and her major trading partners. In this paper we consider the trade between Canada and her major trading partner, the U.S. However, unlike previous research, we disaggregate the trade data between the two countries by commodity. We use export and import data over the period 1962–2004 from 152 commodities and the bounds testing approach to cointegration and error-correction modeling and show that real depreciation of the Canadian dollar has short-run effects on the trade balance of two-thirds of the industries. However, only in 50% of the industries, the short-run effects translate into the long-run favorable effects.

Real and Nominal Effective Exchange Rates for LDCs: 1971–2004

International Monetary Fund constructs and publishes real and nominal effective exchange rates mostly for industrial countries. Recently it has begun publishing such data for some newly industrialized developing countries as well. There remains some developing countries that still have not received any attention by the IMF. This paper bridges that gap by constructing quarterly real and nominal effective exchange rates for 11 developing countries over the 1971–2004 period. As an application we try to assess whether nominal depreciation in these countries has led to real depreciation.     

Exchange-rate volatility and industry trade between Canada and Mexico

While it has long been assumed that exchange-rate volatility introduces a level of uncertainty that helps reduce trade flows, this need not be the case for particular country pairs or for specific products. This study examines the case of trade between Canada and Mexico—two members of the highly integrated North American market. Trade flows are examined for a number of specific products using the “bounds testing” cointegration approach over the period from 1973 to 2006. Relatively few industries see a long-run reduction in trade volumes due to volatility. This indicates that multinational producers in these integrated markets might be able to hedge against exchange-rate risk. Since major Mexican exports appear to see the largest reductions, Mexico might have a stronger incentive to reduce the volatility of the peso.     

An extension of the benefit segmentation base for the consumption of organic foods: A time perspective

Abstract

Benefit segmentation is a long-standing marketing approach that emphasises the ‘what’ and ‘how’ dimensions of consumer benefits; that is, what benefits consumers perceive in product/service consumption, and how such benefits are perceived. This research proposes a fresh time-based approach to benefit segmentation – namely, focusing on the ‘when’ element or when in time benefits take effect. Drawing upon a survey of UK consumers, it explains and discusses consumption motivations through examining antecedents of temporally dominated benefits in application to organic food. Specifically, the study investigates why some consumers predominantly seek present-based benefits vis-à-vis future-based benefits or vice versa in organic food purchase and consumption behaviour. Using correlation and regression analyses, the research findings establish significant associations of level of involvement, prior knowledge level, and product usage level, and some association of time orientation with the temporally emphasised consumption benefits consumers ultimately pursue. Overall, the research highlights the added contribution of a time perspective in a benefit segmentation approach which can assist marketers in understanding better and communicating more effectively with consumers through drawing up consumer profiles based on when in time their dominantly pursued benefit for an offering is perceived to take effect.     

The J-Curve: a literature review

Due to lag structure, currency devaluation is said to worsen the trade balance first and improve it later resulting in a pattern that resemble the letter J, hence the J-Curve phenomenon. Since its introduction by Magee in 1973 Magee, SP. 1973. Currency contracts, pass through and devaluation. Brooking Papers on Economic Activity, 1: 303–25.   (Brooking Papers on Economic Activity, 1, pp. 303–25), a large number of studies have attempted to test the phenomenon using different techniques and different model specifications. The results are at best ambiguous and deserve to be collected together for the future generation of researchers and graduate students. This paper fills such a vacuum in the literature by reviewing the J-Curve related empirical papers.     

Bilateral J-curve between the UK vis-à-vis her major trading partners

Currency depreciation is said to worsen the trade balance first before resulting in an improvement, yielding a short-run pattern labelled the J-curve phenomenon. While early studies tested the J-curve by using aggregate trade data, a few recent studies have employed bilateral data, mostly between the US and her major trading partners. In this paper we extend the literature by considering the experience of the UK. We test the phenomenon between the UK and her twenty major trading partners by employing data over 1973Q1–2001Q3 period. In most instances, we find no support for the J-curve in the short-run. In the long run, only in five cases has the exchange rate had significant impact on the bilateral trade balance.